It would have delayed the WWF’s rise to dominance by a short while, but eventually Vince would have convinced Hogan to come to the WWF.

Gagne was too “old school” and stuck in the past. Sure, losing Hogan hurt, but what hurt him more was his refusal to change with the times and “update” his product. With the exception of The Midnight Rockers, the AWA was mat-based old-school wrestling, with outdated gimmicks. The WWF and WCW were offering more exciting characters and wrestling styles.

Hogan, even as AWA World Champ, would have gotten bored with Gagne’s product and been easy pickings for Vince to sign.

Vince would still have tried the same route he went, with most likely Paul Orndorff in Hogan’s spot as top face. Orndorff was a much better wrestler but he didn’t have Hogan’s charisma and larger-than-life aura. Orndorff was talented enough to be a success as the top draw for the WWF, but to get to the national promotion that Vince wanted the WWF to be, he needed Hogan. And Vince would have gotten him sooner or later.

AWA would still be drawing around 1000 people at the Showboat in Las Vegas. AWA had a shopping list of great talent that they let go because they didn’t know what to do with them….Hogan staying in AWA would be no different than say Vader, Rockers, Road Warriors….all of which became WORLD famous once they left Verne Gagne.

Hogan would not have jumped ship

Meaning the whole landscape of wrestling would have been changed. I think it still would have been successful, but not to the same extent as it was once Hulkamaina took over.

Hogan probably would not have jumped ship to WWF.

But, that wouldn’t have stopped Vince from taking over.
He was the only one to see the value of the new technology (cable TV & PPV) in getting his promotion to jump across the territories’ boundaries.

Also, a lot of the promoters who started in the 60s weren’t doing a great job at finding and developing the next generation of promoters.